Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Braydon Fisher
Toronto Blue Jays · New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.04 · WHIP 1.27 · K 35% · 8 starts
BRAYDON FISHER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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BRAYDON
FISHER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider52%89 mph
Curveball28%82 mph
4-Seam18%95 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.04
WHIP
1.27
K%
35%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .351 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 19% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 39% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.6
K/GM
1.1
IP/GM
1.69
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
35% season K rate
Contact Suppression
19% barrel · 39% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 8 starts
0 of 8 starts over
Last 5: 1.69 ERA · 33% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
0%
Hits
-2%
2B
+9%
3B
-31%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:56 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.