Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
BRENDAN DONOVAN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
BRENDAN
DONOVAN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
54
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Drew Anderson · RHP
91.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
60
VS
ERA
4.85
WHIP
1.38
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 73.5 | 88.6 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 14% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 43% |
| xwOBA | .070 | .469 |
| xSLG | .096 | .753 |
| Whiff% | 9% | 27% |
| Chase% | 44% | 42% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
73.5 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Anderson—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
-12%
2B
-15%
3B
-35%
K
+18%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 11:31 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game