Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Brent Suter
Los Angeles Angels · Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.60 · WHIP 1.40 · K 23% · 10 starts
BRENT SUTER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
BRENT
SUTER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker34%89 mph
4-Seam30%88 mph
Changeup26%77 mph
Slider10%78 mph
Matchup
VS MIL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
18
VS
ERA
4.60
WHIP
1.40
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .435 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 31% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.6
K/GM
1.8
IP/GM
2.00
ERA
0.78
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 31% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 2.00 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
87°
Wind
6 210°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 8:49 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.