Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Brian Keller
Philadelphia Phillies · Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · Pitcher
ERA 3.00 · WHIP 0.67 · K 27% · 1 starts
BRIAN KELLER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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BRIAN
KELLER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Pitch-mix data not available.
Matchup
VS BAL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
23
projected lineup
VS
ERA
3.00
WHIP
0.67
K%
27%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 47% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .496 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 25% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.0
K/GM
3.0
IP/GM
3.00
ERA
0.67
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
27% season K rate
Contact Suppression
25% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 1 starts
0 of 1 starts over
Last 5: 3.00 ERA · 27% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BAL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-2%
Hits
+3%
2B
-5%
3B
+32%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
5 146°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 9:33 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.