Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Brice Matthews
Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros
MG Score
37
F
Tonight's Matchup
48
Matchup
Neutral matchup
vs Bubba Chandler · RHP · 94.8 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
4.70
WHIP
1.57
K%
24%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
87.6
90.3
Barrel%
8.9%
17.6%
Hard Hit%
45%
41%
xwOBA
.315
.432
xSLG
.449
.641
Whiff%
34%
18%
Chase%
25%
36%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Bubba Chandler.
Tonight's Park · Daikin Park
HR-friendlyHR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
87.6
Barrel%
8.9%
Hard Hit%
45%
Sweet Spot%
27%
xwOBA
0.315
xSLG
0.449
Recent Games
Last 5
60%
3/5 games
Last 10
60%
6/10 games
Last 20
50%
10/20 games
Last 30
52%
15/29 games
AVG
.207
OBP
.281
SLG
.207
OPS
.488
HR
0
RBI
1
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/29 | Milwaukee Brewers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Texas Rangers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Texas Rangers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Texas Rangers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Texas Rangers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Chicago Cubs | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Chicago Cubs | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Minnesota Twins | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5/18 | Minnesota Twins | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Brice Matthews
Houston Astros · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
85.1 mph
Avg LA
6.8°
Hard-hit %
39%
Barrel %
13%
Outcomes (80 balls)
Home Run
3Triple
1Double
4Single
15Out
57Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/23/2026 - 5/29/2026
Games: 7
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
DPerformance Score
40Exit Velo
90.4 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
53.3%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
28.6%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.317
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
13.3%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: Hard Hit%
Areas for Improvement: Sweet Spot%, Chase%
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
104.7 mph
Launch Angle
8.7°
xBA
0.300
xSLG
0.428
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
60.0%
Fly Ball%
26.7%
Line Drive%
6.7%
Pop Up%
6.7%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.