Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Bryan Hudson
Chicago White Sox · Athletics vs Chicago White Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.80 · WHIP 1.10 · K 27% · 10 starts
BRYAN HUDSON
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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BRYAN
HUDSON
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam65%92 mph
Sweeper34%80 mph
Matchup
VS OAK LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.80
WHIP
1.10
K%
27%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 27% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .410 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 43% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.0
K/GM
0.8
IP/GM
2.25
ERA
1.75
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
27% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 43% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 2.25 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs OAK—
Tonight's Park
HR
-5%
Hits
-2%
2B
-9%
3B
-28%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
5 97°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.