Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Bryan Reynolds
Pittsburgh Pirates · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros
MG Score
63
C+
Tonight's Matchup
57
Matchup
Neutral matchup
vs Mike Burrows · RHP · 89.9 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
4.32
WHIP
1.17
K%
16%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
90.4
86.7
Barrel%
12.0%
10.0%
Hard Hit%
44%
25%
xwOBA
.399
.365
xSLG
.563
.525
Whiff%
22%
15%
Chase%
23%
37%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Mike Burrows.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
90.4
Barrel%
12.0%
Hard Hit%
44%
Sweet Spot%
33%
xwOBA
0.399
xSLG
0.563
Recent Games
Last 5
80%
4/5 games
Last 10
80%
8/10 games
Last 20
75%
15/20 games
Last 30
65%
17/26 games
AVG
.467
OBP
.579
SLG
.800
OPS
1.379
HR
2
RBI
7
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Minnesota Twins | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Minnesota Twins | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Minnesota Twins | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Chicago Cubs | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/23 | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Bryan Reynolds
Pittsburgh Pirates · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
89.7 mph
Avg LA
5.0°
Hard-hit %
37%
Barrel %
11%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
3Triple
2Double
6Single
22Out
67Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.