Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Bryce Elder
Atlanta Braves · Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.96 · WHIP 1.41 · K 16% · 5 starts
BRYCE ELDER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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BRYCE
ELDER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker28%91 mph
4-Seam26%93 mph
Slider24%83 mph
Cutter13%88 mph
Changeup8%86 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.96
WHIP
1.41
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .307 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 39% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
4.5
IP/GM
5.96
ERA
1.41
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 39% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 5 starts
0 of 5 starts over
Last 5: 5.96 ERA · 16% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
88°
Wind
9 230°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:59 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.