Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Bryce Elder
Atlanta Braves · Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 6.95 · WHIP 1.63 · K 18% · 10 starts
BRYCE ELDER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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BRYCE
ELDER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker32%91 mph
Cutter22%89 mph
4-Seam21%93 mph
Slider17%84 mph
Changeup8%86 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
6.95
WHIP
1.63
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 27% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .481 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 24% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 49% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.8
K/GM
3.9
IP/GM
5.12
ERA
1.40
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
24% barrel · 49% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 5.12 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
7 200°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+23%
K Adj
-7%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 8:24 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.