Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Bubba Chandler
Pittsburgh Pirates · Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates · Pitcher
ERA 4.35 · WHIP 1.39 · K 20% · 10 starts
BUBBA CHANDLER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
BUBBA
CHANDLER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam41%99 mph
Slider27%91 mph
Changeup14%92 mph
Sinker8%98 mph
Curveball7%86 mph
Matchup
VS MIL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.35
WHIP
1.39
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 25% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .297 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.6
K/GM
4.7
IP/GM
4.56
ERA
1.65
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.56 ERA · 12% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
2 99°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-3%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 11:48 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.