Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Bubba Chandler
Pittsburgh Pirates · Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.31 · WHIP 1.35 · K 20% · 10 starts

BUBBA CHANDLER
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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BUBBA
CHANDLER
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam51%98 mph
Slider27%93 mph
Changeup10%91 mph
Curveball6%88 mph
Sinker5%99 mph
Matchup
VS SD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.31
WHIP
1.35
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 25% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .379 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 43% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.2
K/GM
4.5
IP/GM
3.57
ERA
1.19
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 43% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.57 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
89°
Wind
5 246°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:12 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
