Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Cade Cavalli
Washington Nationals · Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.31 · WHIP 1.01 · K 31% · 11 starts

CADE CAVALLI
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line

CADE
CAVALLI
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Knuckle-Curve29%87 mph
4-Seam26%97 mph
Sweeper19%87 mph
Cutter10%94 mph
Changeup8%90 mph
Sinker7%96 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.31
WHIP
1.01
K%
31%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 29% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 35% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .391 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 45% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
8.8
K/GM
6.0
IP/GM
1.50
ERA
0.83
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
31% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 45% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.50 ERA · 39% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
5 133°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-15%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:12 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
