Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cade Cavalli
Washington Nationals · Washington Nationals vs Athletics · Pitcher
ERA 3.63 · WHIP 1.17 · K 27% · 10 starts

CADE CAVALLI
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line

CADE
CAVALLI
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam38%97 mph
Knuckle-Curve23%86 mph
Sinker15%96 mph
Sweeper10%86 mph
Cutter8%93 mph
Changeup6%88 mph
Matchup
VS OAK LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
64
projected lineup
VS
ERA
3.63
WHIP
1.17
K%
27%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .365 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.8
K/GM
4.8
IP/GM
3.38
ERA
1.21
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
27% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.38 ERA · 29% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs OAK—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
+3%
2B
+5%
3B
0%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
13 201°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+23%
K Adj
-3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
