Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Cade Povich
Baltimore Orioles · Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.38 · WHIP 1.49 · K 18% · 8 starts

CADE POVICH
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line

CADE
POVICH
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam45%92 mph
Curveball33%77 mph
Matchup
VS MIL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.38
WHIP
1.49
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .261 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 0% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
4.1
IP/GM
4.35
ERA
1.65
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
0% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 8 starts
0 of 8 starts over
Last 5: 4.35 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-2%
Hits
+3%
2B
-5%
3B
+32%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
2 290°
Rain
20%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:09 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.