Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cal Quantrill
Texas Rangers · Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.89 · WHIP 2.11 · K 12% · 30 starts
CAL QUANTRILL
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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K
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Win
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ER
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H
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CAL
QUANTRILL
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Cutter40%89 mph
Sinker29%94 mph
4-Seam13%94 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
41
VS
ERA
5.89
WHIP
2.11
K%
12%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 12% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 37% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .391 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.4
K/GM
2.3
IP/GM
6.94
ERA
1.80
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
12% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 6.94 ERA · 12% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:10 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.