Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics

MLB / Research
Mongoose Bets
CAL RALEIGH
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
Cal Raleigh
CAL
RALEIGH
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
57
Grade C
Exit Velo93.4Barrel%23%Hard Hit%54%xwOBA.519Sweet Spot%39%Whiff%30%Chase%34%
Matchup
VS Ryan Johnson · RHP
87.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
84
Fantastic
VS
ERA
4.06
WHIP
1.27
K%
18%
Statcast Matchup
 Last 10Allows
Exit Velo93.486.9
Barrel%23%9%
Hard Hit%54%35%
xwOBA.519.322
xSLG.859.472
Whiff%30%20%
Chase%34%24%
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
93.4 avg EV · 22.8% barrel · 54% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10:  — AVG  ·  0 HR  ·  0 RBI  ·  — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Johnson0
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
10 200°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game