Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
CALEB DURBIN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
CALEB
DURBIN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
41
Grade D
Matchup
VS Griffin Jax · RHP
92.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
31
.png?width=128&format=webp&quality=85&resize=contain)
VS
ERA
3.26
WHIP
1.11
K%
28%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 83.2 | 86.4 |
| Barrel% | 7% | 13% |
| Hard Hit% | 29% | 33% |
| xwOBA | .302 | .454 |
| xSLG | .427 | .630 |
| Whiff% | 16% | 24% |
| Chase% | 32% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
83.2 avg EV · 7.2% barrel · 29% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Jax0
Tonight's Park
HR
—
Hits
—
2B
—
3B
—
K
—
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
68°
Wind
4 110°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:08 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game