Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Carlos Rodón
New York Yankees · Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.96 · WHIP 1.15 · K 26% · 11 starts
CARLOS RODÓN
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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CARLOS
RODÓN
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam45%95 mph
Slider27%86 mph
Sinker17%93 mph
Matchup
VS BOS LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.96
WHIP
1.15
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 19% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .428 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 17% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.4
K/GM
4.6
IP/GM
2.74
ERA
1.09
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
17% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.74 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BOS—
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
12 233°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:14 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.