Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Carlos Rodón
New York Yankees · New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.97 · WHIP 1.17 · K 26% · 6 starts
CARLOS RODÓN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
CARLOS
RODÓN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam45%94 mph
Slider23%86 mph
Changeup16%86 mph
Sinker14%93 mph
Matchup
VS BOS LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.97
WHIP
1.17
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 24% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .392 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.4
K/GM
5.5
IP/GM
3.29
ERA
1.21
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 6 starts
0 of 6 starts over
Last 5: 3.29 ERA · 28% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BOS—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
5 187°
Rain
2%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.