Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Carmen Mlodzinski
Pittsburgh Pirates · New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.03 · WHIP 1.18 · K 17% · 11 starts
CARMEN MLODZINSKI
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
CARMEN
MLODZINSKI
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Splitter34%86 mph
4-Seam30%95 mph
Sinker11%95 mph
Curveball8%84 mph
Cutter8%92 mph
Sweeper8%84 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.03
WHIP
1.18
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .428 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 55% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.2
K/GM
2.7
IP/GM
5.93
ERA
1.46
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 55% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 5.93 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
6 233°
Rain
86%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:16 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.