Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Carson Palmquist
Washington Nationals · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.08 · WHIP 1.15 · K 24% · 2 starts
CARSON PALMQUIST
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
CARSON
PALMQUIST
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker50%91 mph
Matchup
VS PIT LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
55
VS
ERA
2.08
WHIP
1.15
K%
24%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 24% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 42% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .360 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.0
K/GM
2.2
IP/GM
2.08
ERA
1.15
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
24% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 2 starts
0 of 2 starts over
Last 5: 2.08 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PIT—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
91°
Wind
4 308°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+19%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.