Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Carson Palmquist
Washington Nationals · Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · Pitcher
ERA 9.00 · WHIP 2.00 · K 18% · 10 starts
CARSON PALMQUIST
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
CARSON
PALMQUIST
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper51%74 mph
Sinker27%90 mph
4-Seam13%91 mph
Matchup
VS PHI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
9.00
WHIP
2.00
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .323 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 3% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 21% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.6
K/GM
1.3
IP/GM
9.45
ERA
2.25
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
3% barrel · 21% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 9.45 ERA · 9% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PHI—
Tonight's Park
HR
+12%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
+1%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
93°
Wind
11 229°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+24%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:42 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.