Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Carson Whisenhunt
San Francisco Giants · San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 7.28 · WHIP 1.85 · K 16% · 7 starts
CARSON WHISENHUNT
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
CARSON
WHISENHUNT
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Changeup39%83 mph
4-Seam32%92 mph
Slider18%84 mph
Sinker7%92 mph
Matchup
VS CLE LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
7.28
WHIP
1.85
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 31% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .395 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 47% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
3.8
IP/GM
9.47
ERA
2.11
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 47% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 7 starts
0 of 7 starts over
Last 5: 9.47 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CLE—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
73°
Wind
7 80°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-18%
K Adj
+2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:31 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.