Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Casey Legumina
Tampa Bay Rays · Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.61 · WHIP 1.17 · K 14% · 11 starts
CASEY LEGUMINA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
CASEY
LEGUMINA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam44%93 mph
Sinker20%93 mph
Slider13%85 mph
Changeup13%87 mph
Matchup
VS TEX LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.61
WHIP
1.17
K%
14%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 37% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .361 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.6
K/GM
1.3
IP/GM
2.70
ERA
1.05
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
14% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.70 ERA · 11% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TEX—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:59 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.