Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Casey Mize
Detroit Tigers · Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.80 · WHIP 0.76 · K 26% · 5 starts
CASEY MIZE
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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CASEY
MIZE
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam33%93 mph
Slider29%88 mph
Splitter21%88 mph
Sinker10%93 mph
Matchup
VS CLE LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.80
WHIP
0.76
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 28% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .223 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 5% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 17% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
5.0
IP/GM
1.80
ERA
0.76
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
5% barrel · 17% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 5 starts
0 of 5 starts over
Last 5: 1.80 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CLE—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
2 278°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:54 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.