Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Ceddanne Rafaela
Boston Red Sox · Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
MG Score
33
F
Tonight's Matchup
36
Matchup
Tough matchup
vs Shane Baz · RHP · 90.3 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
4.01
WHIP
1.22
K%
22%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
86.1
96.5
Barrel%
8.3%
11.1%
Hard Hit%
36%
56%
xwOBA
.335
.358
xSLG
.481
.475
Whiff%
21%
21%
Chase%
35%
33%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Shane Baz: 7 PA · Low sample
AB
6
AVG
.333
OPS
.762
HR
0
H
2
K
1
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
86.1
Barrel%
8.3%
Hard Hit%
36%
Sweet Spot%
40%
xwOBA
0.335
xSLG
0.481
Recent Games
Last 5
80%
4/5 games
Last 10
80%
8/10 games
Last 20
75%
15/20 games
Last 30
74%
17/23 games
AVG
.244
OBP
.292
SLG
.422
OPS
.714
HR
1
RBI
4
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/30 | Cleveland Guardians | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 5/29 | Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Atlanta Braves | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Atlanta Braves | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5/26 | Atlanta Braves | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Minnesota Twins | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Minnesota Twins | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Minnesota Twins | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Kansas City Royals | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/19 | Kansas City Royals | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Ceddanne Rafaela
Boston Red Sox · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
87.4 mph
Avg LA
10.8°
Hard-hit %
41%
Barrel %
20%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
3Triple
2Double
7Single
26Out
62Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.