Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Chase Burns
Cincinnati Reds · Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.77 · WHIP 1.17 · K 29% · 11 starts
CHASE BURNS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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K
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ER
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CHASE
BURNS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam57%97 mph
Slider38%90 mph
Changeup5%90 mph
Matchup
VS PHI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.77
WHIP
1.17
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 27% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 38% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .351 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.0
K/GM
5.4
IP/GM
3.67
ERA
1.44
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.67 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PHI—
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
88°
Wind
6 116°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.