Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Chase Burns
Cincinnati Reds · Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.92 · WHIP 1.31 · K 27% · 11 starts
CHASE BURNS
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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CHASE
BURNS
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam54%97 mph
Slider42%89 mph
Matchup
VS CHC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.92
WHIP
1.31
K%
27%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 28% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 37% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .365 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 43% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.8
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
4.73
ERA
1.43
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
27% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 43% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.73 ERA · 30% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
8 242°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.