CHASE PETTY

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

CHASE

PETTY

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Sinker34%96 mph

Changeup26%88 mph

Sweeper24%84 mph

Matchup

VS WSH LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

70

Good

projected lineup

VS

ERA

4.30

WHIP

1.50

K%

15%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	11%	25%
SwStr%	5.5%	11%
Chase%	37%	28%
xwOBA-a	.360	.315
Barrel%-a	7%	8%
HardHit%-a	30%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

1.0

K/GM

1.5

IP/GM

4.91

ERA

1.64

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

15% season K rate

Contact Suppression

7% barrel · 30% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Neutral park · air suppressing HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 10 starts

0 of 10 starts over

Last 5: 4.91 ERA · 15% K

1

3

1

2

2

1

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs WSH—

Tonight's Park

HR

-3%

Hits

+4%

2B

-3%

3B

-8%

K

-11%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

78°

Wind

12 322°

Rain

100%

HR Adj

-4%

K Adj

-7%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 11:29 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.