CHRIS MURPHY

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

CHRIS

MURPHY

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam36%96 mph

Slider28%89 mph

Curveball26%78 mph

Matchup

VS CLE LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

100

Fantastic

projected lineup

VS

ERA

0.93

WHIP

0.72

K%

25%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	29%	25%
SwStr%	15.4%	11%
Chase%	32%	28%
xwOBA-a	.268	.315
Barrel%-a	8%	8%
HardHit%-a	40%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

0.8

K/GM

1.1

IP/GM

0.00

ERA

0.38

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

25% season K rate

Contact Suppression

8% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 10 starts

0 of 10 starts over

Last 5: 0.00 ERA · 22% K

2

1

1

1

2

2

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs CLE—

Tonight's Park

HR

-17%

Hits

-2%

2B

+14%

3B

-25%

K

0%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

77°

Wind

13 42°

Rain

100%

HR Adj

-9%

K Adj

-5%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 11:01 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.