Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Christian Scott
New York Mets · Houston Astros vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.33 · WHIP 1.28 · K 28% · 11 starts
CHRISTIAN SCOTT
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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CHRISTIAN
SCOTT
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam44%96 mph
Sweeper25%82 mph
Cutter20%90 mph
Curveball7%82 mph
Matchup
VS HOU LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.33
WHIP
1.28
K%
28%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 38% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .368 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 35% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.6
K/GM
5.1
IP/GM
6.04
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
28% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 35% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.04 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs HOU—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
11 228°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+7%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:25 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.