Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Christian Scott
New York Mets · New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.70 · WHIP 1.22 · K 28% · 11 starts
CHRISTIAN SCOTT
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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CHRISTIAN
SCOTT
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam48%95 mph
Sweeper21%81 mph
Cutter19%90 mph
Curveball10%82 mph
Matchup
VS PHI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.70
WHIP
1.22
K%
28%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 31% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 15.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .441 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 17% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 47% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.2
K/GM
4.7
IP/GM
3.42
ERA
1.10
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
28% season K rate
Contact Suppression
17% barrel · 47% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.42 ERA · 32% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PHI—
Tonight's Park
HR
+12%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
+1%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
89°
Wind
10 314°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:56 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.