Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics

MLB / Research
Mongoose Bets
COLE CARRIGG
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
Cole Carrigg
COLE
CARRIGG
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
49
Grade D
Exit Velo88.7Barrel%15%Hard Hit%46%xwOBA.326Sweet Spot%23%Whiff%31%Chase%43%
Matchup
VS Casey Mize · RHP
89.5 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
63
Average
VS
ERA
5.13
WHIP
1.37
K%
15%
Statcast Matchup
 Last 10Allows
Exit Velo88.790.9
Barrel%15%17%
Hard Hit%46%45%
xwOBA.326.326
xSLG.470.514
Whiff%31%17%
Chase%43%29%
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.7 avg EV · 15.4% barrel · 46% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10:  — AVG  ·  0 HR  ·  0 RBI  ·  — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Mize—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+16%
2B
+17%
3B
+103%
K
-8%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
73°
Wind
18 186°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+23%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:59 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game