Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cole Winn
Texas Rangers · Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.35 · WHIP 1.06 · K 20% · 11 starts
COLE WINN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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COLE
WINN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Cutter37%92 mph
4-Seam22%96 mph
Slider21%86 mph
Splitter20%88 mph
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.35
WHIP
1.06
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 29% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 16.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 37% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .421 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.8
K/GM
0.7
IP/GM
4.91
ERA
1.64
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.91 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 11:12 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.