Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
CONNOR NORBY
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
CONNOR
NORBY
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
70
Grade B-
Matchup
VS Anthony Kay · LHP
89.3 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
57
VS
ERA
5.11
WHIP
1.40
K%
17%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 86.4 | 88.4 |
| Barrel% | 10% | 8% |
| Hard Hit% | 30% | 35% |
| xwOBA | .398 | .390 |
| xSLG | .583 | .561 |
| Whiff% | 20% | 19% |
| Chase% | 28% | 34% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
86.4 avg EV · 10.0% barrel · 30% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Kay—
Tonight's Park
HR
-5%
Hits
-2%
2B
-9%
3B
-28%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
70°
Wind
5 38°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:08 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game