Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Connor Norby
Miami Marlins · Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals
MG Score
43
D
Tonight's Matchup
10
Matchup
Avoid
vs Miles Mikolas · RHP · 89.6 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
3.42
WHIP
0.84
K%
16%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
85.3
86.3
Barrel%
7.7%
12.5%
Hard Hit%
33%
25%
xwOBA
.293
.281
xSLG
.445
.412
Whiff%
26%
4%
Chase%
31%
22%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Miles Mikolas.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
85.3
Barrel%
7.7%
Hard Hit%
33%
Sweet Spot%
31%
xwOBA
0.293
xSLG
0.445
Recent Games
Last 5
40%
2/5 games
Last 10
30%
3/10 games
Last 20
50%
10/20 games
Last 30
48%
11/23 games
AVG
.091
OBP
.167
SLG
.121
OPS
.288
HR
0
RBI
1
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Washington Nationals | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/31 | New York Mets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/29 | New York Mets | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | New York Mets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/23 | New York Mets | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/22 | New York Mets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Atlanta Braves | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/19 | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Connor Norby
Miami Marlins · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
86.9 mph
Avg LA
17.5°
Hard-hit %
37%
Barrel %
11%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
4Triple
0Double
10Single
19Out
67Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/23/2026 - 6/1/2026
Games: 7
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
DPerformance Score
36Exit Velo
85.4 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
37.5%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
29.3%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.345
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
31.3%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: No standout metrics
Areas for Improvement: Exit Velo, Chase%
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
106.9 mph
Launch Angle
33.9°
xBA
0.226
xSLG
0.601
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
18.8%
Fly Ball%
62.5%
Line Drive%
6.3%
Pop Up%
12.5%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.