Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Connor Prielipp
Minnesota Twins · Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.15 · WHIP 1.44 · K 23% · 11 starts
CONNOR PRIELIPP
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
CONNOR
PRIELIPP
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam28%96 mph
Slider23%88 mph
Curveball21%83 mph
Changeup14%86 mph
Sinker14%95 mph
Matchup
VS CLE LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.15
WHIP
1.44
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .376 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 45% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.8
K/GM
5.5
IP/GM
4.61
ERA
1.39
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 45% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.61 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CLE—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
3 49°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:01 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.