Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Connor Prielipp
Minnesota Twins · Minnesota Twins vs Athletics · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.73 · WHIP 1.42 · K 25% · 11 starts
CONNOR PRIELIPP
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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CONNOR
PRIELIPP
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider32%88 mph
4-Seam23%96 mph
Sinker21%95 mph
Curveball18%84 mph
Changeup6%87 mph
Matchup
VS OAK LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.73
WHIP
1.42
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .422 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.0
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
7.76
ERA
1.65
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 7.76 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs OAK—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
+3%
2B
+5%
3B
0%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
99°
Wind
8 206°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+25%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:13 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.