Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
COREY JULKS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
COREY
JULKS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Sean Newcomb · LHP
89.8 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
30
VS
ERA
3.00
WHIP
1.50
K%
17%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.1 | 89.9 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 15% |
| Hard Hit% | 50% | 39% |
| xwOBA | .187 | .378 |
| xSLG | .354 | .547 |
| Whiff% | 33% | 22% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.1 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 50% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Newcomb—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
6 78°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 11:53 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game