Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DALTON RUSHING
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DALTON
RUSHING
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
48
Grade D
Matchup
VS Gerrit Cole · RHP
92.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
71
VS
ERA
4.04
WHIP
1.20
K%
23%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.5 | 86.7 |
| Barrel% | 21% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 49% | 45% |
| xwOBA | .364 | .392 |
| xSLG | .522 | .549 |
| Whiff% | 27% | 17% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.5 avg EV · 20.9% barrel · 49% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Cole—
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
7 148°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 4:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game