Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DANE MYERS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DANE
MYERS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
34
Grade F
Matchup
VS Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP
88.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
45
VS
ERA
5.98
WHIP
1.41
K%
12%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 83.6 | 87.5 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 27% | 41% |
| xwOBA | .301 | .413 |
| xSLG | .403 | .642 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 17% |
| Chase% | 29% | 32% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
83.6 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 27% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Sugano—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+16%
2B
+17%
3B
+103%
K
-8%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
2 90°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-8%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 4:41 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game