Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DANSBY SWANSON
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DANSBY
SWANSON
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
52
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Bailey Ober · RHP
83.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
90
VS
ERA
4.19
WHIP
1.17
K%
18%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 92.0 | 92.6 |
| Barrel% | 18% | 23% |
| Hard Hit% | 51% | 46% |
| xwOBA | .434 | .403 |
| xSLG | .689 | .687 |
| Whiff% | 27% | 23% |
| Chase% | 31% | 18% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
92.0 avg EV · 17.9% barrel · 51% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Ober—
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
85°
Wind
6 276°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game