Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DARELL HERNAIZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DARELL
HERNAIZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Daniel Lynch IV · LHP
90.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
71
VS
ERA
4.26
WHIP
1.18
K%
15%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 96.4 | 90.4 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 9% |
| Hard Hit% | 100% | 33% |
| xwOBA | .803 | .388 |
| xSLG | 1.012 | .566 |
| Whiff% | 33% | 26% |
| Chase% | 25% | 32% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
96.4 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 100% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs IV—
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
86°
Wind
8 112°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:45 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game