Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DAULTON VARSHO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DAULTON
VARSHO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
45
Grade D
Matchup
VS Anthony Kay · LHP
89.6 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
34
VS
ERA
3.91
WHIP
1.24
K%
20%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 86.1 | 81.2 |
| Barrel% | 12% | 13% |
| Hard Hit% | 40% | 33% |
| xwOBA | .312 | .364 |
| xSLG | .457 | .476 |
| Whiff% | 21% | 27% |
| Chase% | 38% | 36% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
86.1 avg EV · 11.5% barrel · 40% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Kay0
Tonight's Park
HR
0%
Hits
-2%
2B
+9%
3B
-31%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:49 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game