Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
David Peterson
Chicago Cubs · Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 6.56 · WHIP 1.67 · K 16% · 11 starts
DAVID PETERSON
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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DAVID
PETERSON
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam26%92 mph
Sinker25%93 mph
Slider24%86 mph
Changeup14%86 mph
Curveball10%80 mph
Matchup
VS BAL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
6.56
WHIP
1.67
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 25% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .424 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.6
K/GM
4.3
IP/GM
8.44
ERA
1.64
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 8.44 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BAL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-2%
Hits
+3%
2B
-5%
3B
+32%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
3 240°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+11%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.