Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
David Sandlin
Chicago White Sox · Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.63 · WHIP 1.19 · K 22% · 3 starts
DAVID SANDLIN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
DAVID
SANDLIN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam34%97 mph
Curveball32%83 mph
Cutter15%92 mph
Sinker9%95 mph
Matchup
VS KC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.63
WHIP
1.19
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .370 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 35% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.7
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
5.63
ERA
1.19
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 35% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 3 starts
0 of 3 starts over
Last 5: 5.63 ERA · 22% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs KC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-5%
Hits
-2%
2B
-9%
3B
-28%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
1 125°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-17%
K Adj
+2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.