Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Davis Martin
Chicago White Sox · Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.79 · WHIP 1.49 · K 20% · 11 starts
DAVIS MARTIN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
DAVIS
MARTIN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam24%94 mph
Sinker20%93 mph
Curveball15%82 mph
Cutter15%90 mph
Slider12%87 mph
Changeup8%90 mph
Matchup
VS BOS LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.79
WHIP
1.49
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .362 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.6
K/GM
4.4
IP/GM
6.95
ERA
1.95
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.95 ERA · 13% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BOS—
Tonight's Park
HR
-5%
Hits
-2%
2B
-9%
3B
-28%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
8 259°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.