Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DENZER GUZMAN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DENZER
GUZMAN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Kai-Wei Teng · RHP
87.8 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
27
VS
ERA
3.75
WHIP
1.38
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 86.3 | 86.1 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 15% |
| Hard Hit% | 50% | 40% |
| xwOBA | .096 | .339 |
| xSLG | .146 | .453 |
| Whiff% | 13% | 22% |
| Chase% | 56% | 35% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
86.3 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 50% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Teng—
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
7 216°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:46 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game