Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DENZER GUZMAN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DENZER
GUZMAN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
38
Grade F
Matchup
VS Logan Webb · RHP
87.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
7
VS
ERA
3.57
WHIP
0.94
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 85.9 | 80.6 |
| Barrel% | 2% | 6% |
| Hard Hit% | 28% | 22% |
| xwOBA | .335 | .277 |
| xSLG | .427 | .403 |
| Whiff% | 22% | 27% |
| Chase% | 33% | 44% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
85.9 avg EV · 2.3% barrel · 28% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Webb—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
69°
Wind
12 264°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:44 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game