Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
DJ Herz
Washington Nationals · New York Mets vs Washington Nationals · Pitcher
ERA 9.00 · WHIP 1.75 · K 21% · 1 starts
DJ HERZ
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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DJ
HERZ
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam48%93 mph
Changeup32%83 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
1
projected lineup
VS
ERA
9.00
WHIP
1.75
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 23% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .509 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 23% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
4.0
IP/GM
9.00
ERA
1.75
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
23% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 1 starts
0 of 1 starts over
Last 5: 9.00 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
63°
Wind
14 318°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+5%
K Adj
+1%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 9:52 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.