Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DRAKE BALDWIN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DRAKE
BALDWIN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
72
Grade B
Matchup
VS Foster Griffin · LHP
85.5 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
68
VS
ERA
1.89
WHIP
0.94
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 91.8 | 89.4 |
| Barrel% | 16% | 5% |
| Hard Hit% | 53% | 32% |
| xwOBA | .428 | .323 |
| xSLG | .642 | .411 |
| Whiff% | 18% | 12% |
| Chase% | 25% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
91.8 avg EV · 15.7% barrel · 53% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Griffin1
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
6 322°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+17%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:49 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game