Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DRAKE BALDWIN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DRAKE
BALDWIN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
84
Grade A-
Matchup
VS Adrian Houser · RHP
91.3 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
98
VS
ERA
5.09
WHIP
1.65
K%
21%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 99.4 | 90.2 |
| Barrel% | 60% | 17% |
| Hard Hit% | 80% | 43% |
| xwOBA | .753 | .400 |
| xSLG | 1.264 | .604 |
| Whiff% | 12% | 19% |
| Chase% | 21% | 20% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
99.4 avg EV · 60.0% barrel · 80% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Houser—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
70°
Wind
7 236°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-9%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:57 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game