Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Drew Anderson
Detroit Tigers · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.46 · WHIP 1.19 · K 22% · 10 starts
DREW ANDERSON
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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K
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ER
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H
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DREW
ANDERSON
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam39%96 mph
Changeup27%90 mph
Curveball25%80 mph
Matchup
VS LAD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.46
WHIP
1.19
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .396 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 37% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
3.9
IP/GM
3.20
ERA
1.22
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.20 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAD—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
69°
Wind
6 183°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-6%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:23 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.