Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Drew Anderson
Detroit Tigers · Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.00 · WHIP 1.28 · K 31% · 11 starts
DREW ANDERSON
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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DREW
ANDERSON
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Pitch-mix data not available.
Matchup
VS HOU LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.00
WHIP
1.28
K%
31%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 35% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .302 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.2
K/GM
1.3
IP/GM
4.26
ERA
1.11
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
31% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.26 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs HOU—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
6 129°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-10%
K Adj
-3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:49 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.