Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DREW CAVANAUGH
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DREW
CAVANAUGH
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
43
Grade D
Matchup
VS Hunter Brown · RHP
92.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
12
VS
ERA
3.83
WHIP
1.20
K%
24%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 80.9 | 87.3 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 9% |
| Hard Hit% | 23% | 35% |
| xwOBA | .321 | .307 |
| xSLG | .402 | .441 |
| Whiff% | 27% | 30% |
| Chase% | 20% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
80.9 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 23% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Brown—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
66°
Wind
11 242°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:42 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game