Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DREW CAVANAUGH
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DREW
CAVANAUGH
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Bryce Elder · RHP
88.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
65
VS
ERA
8.31
WHIP
1.81
K%
15%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 83.7 | 94.0 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 8% |
| Hard Hit% | 50% | 54% |
| xwOBA | .367 | .465 |
| xSLG | .438 | .673 |
| Whiff% | 20% | 22% |
| Chase% | 25% | 21% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
83.7 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 50% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Elder—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
66°
Wind
18 273°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+21%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 8:30 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game