Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
DREW GILBERT
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DREW
GILBERT
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
66
Grade B-
Matchup
VS Paul Skenes · RHP
92.8 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
78
VS
ERA
5.02
WHIP
1.38
K%
28%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.4 | 88.0 |
| Barrel% | 18% | 19% |
| Hard Hit% | 38% | 42% |
| xwOBA | .454 | .374 |
| xSLG | .702 | .563 |
| Whiff% | 23% | 24% |
| Chase% | 28% | 27% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.4 avg EV · 18.2% barrel · 38% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Skenes—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
88°
Wind
4 243°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+11%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:22 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game