Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Dylan Cease
American League All-Stars · American League All-Stars vs National League All-Stars · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.21 · WHIP 1.00 · K 40% · 11 starts
DYLAN CEASE
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
DYLAN
CEASE
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam39%97 mph
Slider29%89 mph
Changeup11%81 mph
Knuckle-Curve10%82 mph
Sinker8%96 mph
Matchup
VS NAT LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.21
WHIP
1.00
K%
40%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 28% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .301 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 22% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
8.2
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
2.05
ERA
0.95
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
40% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 22% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.05 ERA · 40% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NAT—
Tonight's Park
HR
—
Hits
—
2B
—
3B
—
K
—
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
87°
Wind
9 232°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.