Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Eddy Yean
Washington Nationals · Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.35 · WHIP 0.78 · K 14% · 4 starts
EDDY YEAN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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EDDY
YEAN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Pitch-mix data not available.
Matchup
VS TOR LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.35
WHIP
0.78
K%
14%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 9% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 4.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 22% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .240 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 0% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.0
K/GM
1.9
IP/GM
2.35
ERA
0.78
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
14% season K rate
Contact Suppression
0% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
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Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 4 starts
0 of 4 starts over
Last 5: 2.35 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TOR—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
5 158°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-9%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:05 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.