Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Edgardo Henriquez
Los Angeles Dodgers · Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Pitcher
ERA 2.89 · WHIP 1.39 · K 21% · 10 starts
EDGARDO HENRIQUEZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
EDGARDO
HENRIQUEZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam26%101 mph
Sinker24%101 mph
Cutter21%95 mph
Slider18%87 mph
Matchup
VS BOS LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
85
projected lineup
VS
ERA
2.89
WHIP
1.39
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 24% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .211 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 0% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 21% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.0
K/GM
0.7
IP/GM
8.10
ERA
2.70
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
0% barrel · 21% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 8.10 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BOS—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
5 203°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 9:33 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.