Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Eduardo Rodriguez
Arizona Diamondbacks · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.28 · WHIP 1.12 · K 17% · 12 starts
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
EDUARDO
RODRIGUEZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam38%92 mph
Changeup24%86 mph
Curveball18%80 mph
Sinker10%92 mph
Cutter9%89 mph
Matchup
VS LAD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.28
WHIP
1.12
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .391 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 16% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.8
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
1.69
ERA
0.90
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
16% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 1.69 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
7 251°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:51 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.