Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
EDWIN ARROYO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
EDWIN
ARROYO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Michael King · RHP
89.5 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
44
VS
ERA
2.72
WHIP
1.14
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.9 | 84.6 |
| Barrel% | 33% | 8% |
| Hard Hit% | 33% | 25% |
| xwOBA | .341 | .305 |
| xSLG | .587 | .452 |
| Whiff% | 50% | 20% |
| Chase% | 80% | 34% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.9 avg EV · 33.3% barrel · 33% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs King—
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
91°
Wind
2 267°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+9%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:39 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game