Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
ELIAS DÍAZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ELIAS
DÍAZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
65
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Ian Seymour · LHP
87.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
73
VS
ERA
4.33
WHIP
1.21
K%
30%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 91.5 | 85.1 |
| Barrel% | 21% | 14% |
| Hard Hit% | 49% | 29% |
| xwOBA | .377 | .403 |
| xSLG | .569 | .613 |
| Whiff% | 26% | 27% |
| Chase% | 34% | 42% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
91.5 avg EV · 20.9% barrel · 49% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Seymour0
Tonight's Park
HR
+15%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
-21%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:51 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game